Visa Bulletin Explained: Why Simple Math Won’t Predict Your Green Card Timing

The U.S. Department of State releases the monthly Visa Bulletin, which provides critical information for individuals seeking permanent residency in the United States. The Visa Bulletin outlines the availability of immigrant visa numbers, based on applicants’ priority dates, preference categories, and countries of chargeability. The charts show when individuals seeking an immigrant visa or adjustment of status can actually submit their applications, based on their preference category and country of chargeability. The Visa Bulletin includes both 'Final Action Dates' and 'Dates for Filing' charts, which guide applicants on when they are eligible for filing applications.

The State Department, in coordination with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), provides updates on visa availability and manages the process for both immigrant visa applicants and those seeking adjustment of status. USCIS determines each month whether applicants should use the 'Final Action Dates' chart or the 'Dates for Filing' chart for submitting their applications. These agencies play a crucial role in ensuring that immigration services are accessible and that the process for filing applications is clear and transparent.

Understanding the Visa Bulletin is essential for making informed decisions about your immigration journey. Applicants can seek guidance from immigration services, including those provided by citizenship and immigration services, to navigate the process and understand their eligibility for filing applications.

Introduction to the Visa Process

Navigating the U.S. immigration system can feel overwhelming, especially for individuals seeking an immigrant visa. The process involves multiple steps, strict eligibility requirements, and a careful review of each applicant’s background and intentions. At the center of this journey is the Visa Bulletin—a monthly update from the Department of State that plays a crucial role in determining immigrant visa availability.

The Visa Bulletin is essential for anyone hoping to become a permanent resident through adjustment of status or by applying for an immigrant visa at a U.S. consulate abroad. It provides up-to-date information on which preference categories and priority dates are eligible to move forward in the process. Your priority date, which is usually the date your petition was filed, determines your place in line for a visa. The Visa Bulletin’s charts show when individuals seeking an immigrant visa or adjustment of status can actually submit their applications, based on their preference category and country of chargeability.

Understanding how the Visa Bulletin works—and how it fits into the broader visa process—is key to making informed decisions about your immigration journey. By keeping track of visa availability and knowing where you stand in the process, you can better prepare for each step on the path to permanent residency.

Can You Predict Your Green Card Wait Time from the Visa Bulletin? Not Exactly. Here's Why.

Many people believe that they can simply track progress on the Visa Bulletin, do some quick arithmetic, and estimate the date they’ll get a green card. Unfortunately, the reality is much more complex.

For example, the 140,000 employment-based green cards issued each year are subject to an annual limit on immigrant visa numbers, which applies specifically to employment based visa applications. These annual limits on visa numbers are set by U.S. immigration law and directly affect the availability of green cards each year.

If you’re basing your green card wait time on how long it took people to get green cards in the past, you are setting yourself up for frustration. Let’s break down why this approach doesn’t work and what you should consider instead.

How the Visa Bulletin and Final Action Dates Really Work

The Visa Bulletin, published monthly by the U.S. Department of State, indicates who can apply for a green card in a given month. The chart in the Visa Bulletin provides key information on visa processing timelines and cutoff dates for each preference category and chargeability area. But it doesn’t provide a clear forecast for future timelines. Here’s why:

Green card issuance is capped – The U.S. only grants about 140,000 employment-based green cards each year, and that total includes not just workers but also their immigrant spouses and children.
Countries with high demand face extra waiting – No more than 7% of the total green cards can go to applicants from any single country. The Visa Bulletin uses chargeability areas to allocate visa numbers and set cutoff dates for each country or region. This disproportionately affects applicants from high-population countries with high demand, such as India and China.
There is no limit on applications – While there’s a fixed number of green cards each year, there’s no limit on how many applicants start the process. More people entering a clogged system mean a growing backlog over time.

Visa Bulletin Categories

The Visa Bulletin organizes immigrant visas into several preference categories, each with its own eligibility rules and timelines. These categories are designed to manage the flow of applicants and ensure that visas are distributed fairly among different groups.

Why Simple Math Won't Predict Your Priority Date

Many people assume they can just subtract the backlogged years from the visa bulletin and estimate when their number will come up. For example:

If today, EB-2 India is processing priority dates from 2012, and my priority date is in 2019, I must be seven years away… right? In reality, only applicants with a priority date earlier than the listed cutoff date are eligible to proceed with their applications.

Employment based preference visas are divided into several employment based preference categories. These include first preference for individuals with extraordinary ability, advanced degrees, and exceptional ability, as well as third preference for skilled workers and other workers. Each category has its own eligibility criteria, visa allocation process, and annual numerical limits.

Unfortunately, no—it doesn’t work like that. Here’s why:

The Queue Keeps Growing – The number of new applicants entering the system each year adds to the backlog, making the wait time grow longer for those further down the list.
Multiple Filings Per Individual – Many applicants file several I-140 petitions over time due to job changes, promotions, or new eligibility criteria (e.g., switching from EB-3 to EB-2). Applicants may also switch between employment based preference categories, such as moving from third preference (skilled workers and other workers) to second preference (advanced degrees or exceptional ability), depending on their qualifications.
Some Applicants Drop Out – Not everyone who starts the process will finish it. Some will leave the U.S., switch to family-sponsored green cards, or obtain their green cards through a spouse.
Processing Times Have Changed – A decade ago, labor certification was processed much faster than it is today. What took about a year for applicants in 2012 now takes two years or more.

Understanding the PERM labor certification process is key to realizing why predictions based on past years can be misleading. Before many people can even get a priority date, they must:

Obtain a prevailing wage determination (~5+ months)
Conduct a recruitment process (60-day minimum)
File the labor certification (PERM) and wait for approval (now well over 1 year)
Submit and get approval for the I-140 petition (which finally locks in the priority date)

Because of these delays, many applicants who started their green card process in the past two years don’t even show up in the waitlist data yet. That means the backlog you see today isn’t even accounting for the full demand.

So, What Can You Do?

While you may not be able to pinpoint exactly when your priority date will be current, you can take proactive steps:

✅ Stay informed. Keep track of visa bulletin updates but understand their limitations. Applicants should monitor the Visa Bulletin to determine when they are eligible to file applications or submit a status application.
✅ Be open to alternate strategies. If eligible, consider filing an I-140 petition in a faster category, like EB-1. If a category does not remain current or if further requests for visa numbers are not being accepted, applicants may need to consider other status applications or filing in a different category.

Final Thoughts: Predicting Your Green Card Timeline is Tricky

Your immigration journey is shaped by evolving backlogs, changing policies, and hidden factors that aren't immediately visible in the visa bulletin.

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