Can You Predict Your Green Card Wait Time from the Visa Bulletin? Not Exactly. Here’s Why.

Many people believe that they can simply track progress on the Visa Bulletin, do some quick arithmetic, and estimate the date they'll get a green card. Unfortunately, the reality is much more complex.

If you’re basing your green card wait time on how long it took people to get green cards in the past, you are setting yourself up for frustration. Let’s break down why this approach doesn’t work and what you should consider instead.

How the Visa Bulletin Really Works

The Visa Bulletin, published monthly by the U.S. Department of State, indicates who can apply for a green card in a given month. But it doesn’t provide a clear forecast for future timelines. Here’s why:

• Green card issuance is capped – The U.S. only grants about 140,000 employment-based green cards each year, and that total includes not just workers but also their immigrant spouses and children.
• Countries with high demand face extra waiting – No more than 7% of the total green cards can go to applicants from any single country. This disproportionately affects applicants from high-population countries with high demand, such as India and China.
• There is no limit on applications – While there's a fixed number of green cards each year, there's no limit on how many applicants start the process. More people entering a clogged system mean a growing backlog over time.

Why Simple Math Won't Predict Your Priority Date

Many people assume they can just subtract the backlogged years from the visa bulletin and estimate when their number will come up. For example:

If today, EB-2 India is processing priority dates from 2012, and my priority date is in 2019, I must be seven years away… right?

Unfortunately, no—it doesn't work like that. Here’s why:

1. The Queue Keeps Growing – The number of new applicants entering the system each year adds to the backlog, making the wait time grow longer for those further down the list.
2. Multiple Filings Per Individual – Many applicants file several I-140 petitions over time due to job changes, promotions, or new eligibility criteria (e.g., switching from EB-3 to EB-2).
3. Some Applicants Drop Out – Not everyone who starts the process will finish it. Some will leave the U.S., switch to family-sponsored green cards, or obtain their green cards through a spouse.
4. Processing Times Have Changed – A decade ago, labor certification was processed much faster than it is today. What took about a year for applicants in 2012 now takes two years or more.

The Hidden Backlog: Labor Certification Delays

Understanding the PERM labor certification process is key to realizing why predictions based on past years can be misleading. Before many people can even get a priority date, they must:

1. Obtain a prevailing wage determination (~5+ months)
2. Conduct a recruitment process (60-day minimum)
3. File the labor certification (PERM) and wait for approval (now well over 1 year)
4. Submit and get approval for the I-140 petition (which finally locks in the priority date)

Because of these delays, many applicants who started their green card process in the past two years don’t even show up in the waitlist data yet. That means the backlog you see today isn't even accounting for the full demand.

So, What Can You Do?

While you may not be able to pinpoint exactly when your priority date will be current, you can take proactive steps:

• ✅ Stay informed. Keep track of visa bulletin updates but understand their limitations.
• ✅ Be open to alternate strategies. If eligible, consider filing an I-140 petition in a faster category, like EB-1.

Final Thoughts: Predicting Your Green Card Timeline is Tricky

Your immigration journey is shaped by evolving backlogs, changing policies, and hidden factors that aren’t immediately visible in the visa bulletin.